Main trends by region
The regions were selected in accordance with those used to describe regional impacts of climate change
by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Africa
Between 2000 and 2020, the population with access to drinking water went from
67.91% to 78.69% in North Africa and from 17% to 30% in sub-Saharan region.
The population with access to sanitation grew from 24.79% to 41.73% in North
Africa and from 14.3% to 21% in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Changing patterns of precipitation
Climate change is expected to change patterns of precipitation, concentrating it
during heavy rainfall events. While total precipitation is expected to reduce in some
regions of Africa such as southern Africa, the heaviness of rainfall is expected to
increase across the continent. Heavier rainfalls will lead to a significant increase in
the risk of flooding, which can disrupt the availability of water by damaging
infrastructure, and can contaminate both groundwater and surface supplies. This
can threaten drinking water quality, threaten affordability, and extreme cases, the
availability of water of local populations. In areas such as the Sahel, torrential rains
and long droughts accelerate mass migration processes.
Droughts
Climate models predict longer and more frequent droughts across the continent, as
periods between rainfall become longer. Therefore, shortages of water, and particularly
potable water are expected to increase during long periods of drought, as the
continued availability of potable water and sanitation services is not guaranteed.
Without proper governance and planning for these droughts, the availability of drinking
water and sanitation services will not be continuous. Parts of Africa, including most
southern Africa, are predicted to see a long-term decline in rainfall and water flows. In
areas such as the Sahel, increasingly long and intense droughts are accelerating
processes of desertification, threatening the lives of nomadic communities and even
the habitability of vast territories, which augurs massive migratory processes.
Groundwater storage
Africa has significant groundwater stores, the importance of which grows with climate
change. Although in most of these aquifers no strong impacts on recharge due to
climate change are expected, particularly drought-sensitive territories such as the
Sahel, the Horn of Africa and southern Africa may experience a decrease in
groundwater recharge, especially in shallow aquifers. In addition, as exploitation of
these aquifers increases, due to hardening droughts and population growth, their
sustainability may be put at risk and the quality of water may be degraded by
overexploitation, contamination and intrusion of saltwater in coastal aquifers.
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