A/69/275 geography, poverty, gender, age, indigenous or minority status and disability are often disproportionately affected. 15 43. Climate change is already having a significant impact on approximately 1 billion of the world’s poor. In achieving the target set out in Millennium Development Goal 1, poverty rates have been halved, with 700 million fewer people living in extreme poverty in 2010 than in 1990. In the Human Developmen t Report 2013, however, the United Nations Development Programme warns that if environmental degradation continues at the current rate, the gains in poverty reduction will be reversed, plunging over 3 billion people into extreme poverty and hunger. Without the implementation of serious measures to combat climate change, the number of people at risk of hunger is projected to increase by 10 -20 per cent by 2050. 16 44. The most recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 16 suggests that climate change will “more likely than not” depress crop yields by more than 5 per cent by 2050. In addition, there is increased certainty about the effects of climate volatility on agricultural production and practices, with climate change shocks principally affecting smallholder agriculture, where the absence of crop insurance translates into adversity to risk. The report further acknowledges that climate change will have significant impacts on non-farm rural livelihoods, as well as tending to increase the risk of violent conflict when the availability of food and water is threatened. 17 FAO has noted that climate change affects the four dimensions of food security: availability, accessibility, utilization and food system stability. It will have an impact on human health, livelihood assets, food production and distribution channels, as well as influencing purchasing power and market flows. 18 45. The threat posed by climate change to fresh water supplies, combined with the overuse of water in agriculture, is having a detrimental impact on food security. The consequent effects on food production are significant, putting the livelihoods of rural communities and the food security of city dwellers at risk. With the global population expected to increase to 9.5 billion by 2050, 19 the world’s food calorie production will need to increase by 68 per cent in order to meet growing demand. 46. Climate change is not only impacting on food security but rising carbon dioxide emissions are causing harm to staple food crops, reducing their nutrient content for the 280 million malnourished people in the world. 20 A study by the Harvard School of Public Health estimates that 2 billion people suffer from zinc and __________________ 15 16 17 18 19 20 14-58889 The Millennium Development Goals Report 2013, available from www.un.org/millenniumgoals/ pdf/report-2013/mdg-report-2013-english.pdf. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability”, summary for policymakers of the contribution of Working Group II to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a vailable from ipccwg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WG2AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf. Bill Pritchard, Food Security and Climate Change: What Does the 5th IPCC Assessment Report Tell Us? http://sydney.edu.au/environment-institute/blog/food-security/. FAO, Climate Change and Food Security: a Framework Document (2008). Nikos Alexandratos and Jelle Bruinsma, World Agriculture towards 2030/2050. The 2012 Revision, (FAO, 2012). Economic Commission for Africa background paper, “The cost of hunger in Africa: social a nd economic impact of child undernutrition in Egypt, Ethiopia, Swaziland and Uganda” (E/ECA/COE/33/9 AU/CAMEF/EXP/9(IX)). 13/18